Somebody told me today that all I do all day is "call things". For instance, I had a picture of the Danish curling team as my wallpaper weeks before it was discovered that Madeline did soft core pornography.

I've had some unique experiences in my life. Given those experiences, I feel like I can predict this:

Homosexuals will not be 11B.

What does that mean? Our current president has made a big deal about rescinding/eliminating the don't ask don't tell policy instituted during the Clinton administration. He (and even GEN George Casey) are on the record. They feel that homosexuals should be able to serve openly side by side with the other men and women in our Army.

Cool.

Here's something you don't know.

Certain MOSs (Military Occupational Specialty) are not open to women. Period. If you are a woman, you can't - CAN NOT - be an Eleven Bravo. Furthermore, you can't serve in certain units that are primarily the "tooth" of our military. See 1/503 IN (AASLT) and 1/22 LIGHT IN for examples. This is done quietly. We and the media love stories about women "on the front lines". Frankly, they aren't.

So, the real question is: Will openly homosexual men be allowed to serve in such units?

When the inevitable headline comes out (no pun intended) next month that proudly declares "Gay men now allowed to serve" ask yourself - and the General of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - Are they really?

I'm calling it now. They won't.

Oh. And since I'm on the issue of calling things... both David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez will be playing baseball in 2011. You heard it here first.

Well, maybe he doesn't suck, but he's not the same pitcher he was in '07 - '08.

I think the most telling stat is BF/(IP3) (batters faced / (innings pitched). Effectively, 3 - how many people get on base each inning.

Generally speaking, a BF/IP of 4.00 is considered good (one baserunner per inning pitched). Pap is at 4.39.

It gets more disturbing when we consider that it's not a very big sample size (due to the fact that Pap is a closer he has only averaged about 11 or 12 innings a month this year). So it makes sense to look at the statistically outlying games within the totals.

Of the 38 games in which Pap has appeared this year, 10 (26.32%) are better (less) than 4.00*, 11 (28.95%) are exactly 4.00, and 17 (44.74%) are worse (higher) than 4.00.

That means Papelbon is just a "good" pitcher or WORSE than a "good" pitcher 74% of the time!

Hardly a "lights-out" closer that he is made out to be. At least this year. BTW, his lifetime average is 3.98.

[don't you love how you can irresponsibly make stats say whatever you want?]

*These are games in which Pap had a clean [read: 1, 2, 3] inning, or pitched more than three outs while allowing less than two baserunners... EXACTLY what a great closer should do EVERY GAME. Unfortunately, Pap only does it about once out every four games.