Well, maybe he doesn't suck, but he's not the same pitcher he was in '07 - '08.

I think the most telling stat is BF/(IP3) (batters faced / (innings pitched). Effectively, 3 - how many people get on base each inning.

Generally speaking, a BF/IP of 4.00 is considered good (one baserunner per inning pitched). Pap is at 4.39.

It gets more disturbing when we consider that it's not a very big sample size (due to the fact that Pap is a closer he has only averaged about 11 or 12 innings a month this year). So it makes sense to look at the statistically outlying games within the totals.

Of the 38 games in which Pap has appeared this year, 10 (26.32%) are better (less) than 4.00*, 11 (28.95%) are exactly 4.00, and 17 (44.74%) are worse (higher) than 4.00.

That means Papelbon is just a "good" pitcher or WORSE than a "good" pitcher 74% of the time!

Hardly a "lights-out" closer that he is made out to be. At least this year. BTW, his lifetime average is 3.98.

[don't you love how you can irresponsibly make stats say whatever you want?]

*These are games in which Pap had a clean [read: 1, 2, 3] inning, or pitched more than three outs while allowing less than two baserunners... EXACTLY what a great closer should do EVERY GAME. Unfortunately, Pap only does it about once out every four games.